The constant imperative to learn, to grow, to develop, to expand horizons is a powerful human factor. It leads from stone tools to iron, from iron to tempered steel, and from steel to diamonds. It drives footmen to invent the wheel, wagonmen to learn to fly, and pilots to rocket to the moon. And by its very nature it pushes men toward representative governance.

Two current news items portray washed-up old men grasping for the vestiges of their influence. Both involve AUDIOTAPES in a venue where these two men used to make VIDEOTAPES. While the extreme significance of this change of format has not been spoken of at all by either the western intelligence analysts or the mainstream media, it is a telling indication of the decline of their fortunes.

1. 
   
2. If either or both men are injured or dead, audiotapes are easy to synthesize from previously recorded material. Videotapes are more of a technical challenge.
   
3. If they are alive and ailing or wounded, their physical plight would not be revealed on audiotapes as it would be with imagery.
   
4. In a mountain cave survival situation, the equipment for recording audio is not as difficult to obtain and use as that for video.
   
5. Their freedom of movement is now so restricted that any video background information, such as types of rock formation, vegetation, or sun angle, could potentially betray their whereabouts.
   
6. Possibly they don’t want to risk having even the most trusted of underlings make close physical contact to obtain the recording for fear of trackback. An audio recording from ground position to ground position could easily be made at a distance of five miles via battery powered equipment. Remote video recording, as from a satellite phone, would betray their position.

Analysts Pore Over Bin Laden Tape Clues
By LARA JAKES JORDAN

WASHINGTON - The government sought Friday to pinpoint when Osama bin Laden recorded his most recent warning about planned attacks on the United States -- a key fact that could help determine the risk that terrorists will carry out the threat.

Intelligence officials said analysts were scrutinizing the audio tape by the al-Qaida leader for any clues -- including certain words and phrases -- that might be a signal for the terror network's members or followers. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

The Homeland Security Department said it had no plans to raise the nation's terror threat alert level and no reason to believe an attack was imminent....

An analysis by the IntelCenter, a U.S. government contractor that does work for intelligence agencies, highlighted language in bin Laden's statement that it said could be part of a warning cycle for Americans.

In his most recent recording, bin Laden began his statement by saying, "Peace be upon those who follow guidance." That language, the analysis concluded, closely matches a pattern seen before the bombings in London last July 7....

Another story getting attention is the posting of an al Zawahri tape to the web. However, there is nothing in the tape to suggest that it is not old material. From Associated Press:

Purported Tape of Al-Zawahri Posted on Web Jan 20, 10:31 PM (ET) By OMAR SINAN

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - An audiotape from al-Qaida's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahri, was posted Friday on an Islamic Web site, but U.S. officials said the recording does not appear to have been made recently and may even date back years.

In the audiotape, al-Zawahri read a poem praising "martyrs of holy war" in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere.

The tape made no mention of a Jan. 13 U.S. airstrike in Pakistan that was targeting al-Zawahri and killed four al-Qaida leaders.

The CIA verified the voice as al-Zawahri following a technical analysis, an agency official said....

Americans should not let down their guard. One nutcase with an envelope of anthrax can kill hundreds of people. And we have very porous borders. It is likely there will be incursions, and that ordinary Americans will be killed.

But this happens all the time anyway. Drunk drivers, berserk postal workers, careless cigarette smokers, railroad crossings at grade, negligent aircraft maintenance, all sorts of serial killers and other predators -- are part of our varied landscape. Now we don't just need defensive driving. We should be prudent and develop the habit of cautious living. We should, every one of us, be alert to our surroundings.

Other countries have lived with political terrorism for years. Yet their stock markets flourish and their vacation spots draw crowds. Life surges forward, people marry, children are born. When a bomb tears up a road, they repave it. When a terrorist blows up himself and a cafe, they bury their dead, replace the shattered windows, and reopen for business.

When the inevitable terrorist events occur, our mainstream media will undoubtedly wail and bemoan the end of America, while secretly salivating at their soaring viewership. But it will hardly be a scratch on the surface of our deep and powerful and varied culture. And the two terrorists, euphemistically described by the Associated Press as exiled dissidents, will not take over the world.

Related: For a discussion of press pandering, see RightWinged.

Cross-posted at the American Daugher Media Center.