But the caveat to Steyn�s is that it is dependent on �things continuing on this trend�. Just as the weak point of Malthusian �Population Bomb�-ers was that they were extrapolating 1970�s trends in food supply and population grown unchangingly into the future, so too may today�s (Steynian?) �Population Bust�-ers be making the same mistake by assuming that comparative fertility statistics between Westerners and Muslims will continue to be the same in the future as they are now.

I�d like to point out two factors that can affect that balance in the future. The first may lead to a decrease in Muslim fertility, the second may cause an increase in Western fertility.

First: Will Muslim fertility remain at such a high rate?

What factors made Western fertility drop? Are Islamic cultures immune to those factors?

Scientific discoveries and improved social conditions helped generate the Western population explosion of the 18th and 19th centuries by reducing child mortality rates to those far below competing cultures. From the middle of the 20th century onward, changes in science and society have caused a corresponding reduction in Western fertility. Scientifically through the invention of The Pill � the first form of contraception that puts birth control entirely in the hands of the woman. Socially through the Feminist Movement � contributing to the legalization of abortion and the trend where many women pursue a career path and delay marriage and childbirth.

I want to point out that I am not in this article speaking in favor or against the above issues. I am just stating that these are the factors that have lead to the change in Western fertility rates. From the 1950�s onwards, western women in the aggregate � possessing greater control of their economic fate and their fertility � have chosen to bear fewer children.

Comparatively, one could say that the Dar al-Islam (The House of Islam) suffers from a �Feminism Gap�. Women have less legal, economic, and personal freedom. Aggregate birthrates remain high.

But will that always be the case? As liberty and prosperity expand into the Muslim world, will we see a corresponding drop in fertility? Understanding that Islamic culture is not monolithic, when we look at smaller demographic groups within Dar al-Islam with different economic and social situations � instead of just the aggregate � we may be able to see future trends. Compare Syria with it�s more culturally cosmopolitan neighbor Lebanon. Compare the wealthy UAE with the impoverished Yemen. Compare urban Baghdad with more rural areas of Iraq.

I do not have the fertility statistics for these subgroups at hand, if they even exist. If someone has this information, please let us know. (If some publication or think tank wants to pay me, I�ll do the research!) My expectation is, however, that as economic and political freedom extends into the Middle East, birth rates will decline. [footnote 3]

Or to put it another way: Mark Steyn worries about the explosion in the population of young Muslim men. But let�s remember that there is an equal explosion in the population of young women. With instant electronic knowledge of the facts of life in other countries of the world, will Muslim women throw open the windows of Dar al-Islam and let in the fresh air of equality?

Second: Demographic shifts within the West will lead to increased fertility rates.

I have to admit that I�m less than sanguine about the chances of countries like Italy and Spain. A fertility rate that nearly halves the population in a generation is going to be hard to recover from. So let�s look at the United States instead�

James Taranto first publicized the idea of �The Roe Effect� and it has been expounded upon many others, including Mark Steyn and Rush Limbaugh. The idea is that, if one assumes that pro-life women are less likely to have abortions than those that are neutral or pro-abortion, then over time the percentage of the population that is pro-life will increase.

It can also be argued that women who pursue careers tend and delay childbirth will have fewer children than women who marry earlier.

Looking at U.S. electoral politics � and not taking into account people moving due to better economics or weather � states which voted for the Pro-Life George W. Bush in the 2004 election have a faster growth rate than states that voted for John Kerry.

The result is that the electorate becomes more conservative just on the basis of fertility. It�s an interesting path to conservative political victory � wait for liberals to go extinct because they�re not reproducing.

But there�s a positive corollary on the aggregate. From one generation to the next, the percentage of the population is always weighted towards people who grew up in large families. The legacy of a woman who has four children is greater than that of a woman who only had one. Four children will be raised in the environment of her and her husband�s values. If it is indeed the case that those children have a greater likelihood of having larger families, then the fertility rate will increase.

Good news, right? Well, it�s still not all sunshine and roses for the West. An increase in fertility rate will grow the population, but it still depends on how many people you started with. Here in the U.S., our population is still on the rise, and the abovementioned trends may lead to a welcome increase in growth.

But for countries like Italy or Spain, where the population of the next generation will be half of the current one, it will take a long time to even return to today�s numbers. And in the meantime, there will be fewer workers available to support the infrastructure and economy, let alone the security net for the more numerous older generation.

Will Italian cities follow the path of Old Rome and become empty shells of their former bustling glory? Or will new immigrant groups come in and fundamentally change the political, social and religious life?

Looking ahead, the West still faces a significant demographic problem for at least the first half of this century, but here are still silver linings to the dark clouds that Mark Steyn sees on the horizon. The U.S. may already be recovering from the Roe Effect. Europe may eventually follow. South America is still a region that combines population growth with the expansion of economic and political freedoms. And let�s not forget that there are 1 billion Indians living in the worlds largest democracy � a democracy that is the child of the liberal English values propagated in the first-ever baby boom. Finally, societal pressures caused by the growing Muslim population of men *and* women may lead to more internal changes in Dar al-Islam than in the outside world.

We look to the future with a hope based on the knowledge of humankind�s universal drive towards liberty and with the resolve and moral conviction to defend our own way of life.

Footnotes

[footnote 1] As an analogy of how child mortality rates affect population expansion, think of all those baby sea-turtles scurrying down the beach after they hatch in Florida. Scientists estimate that as few as 1 hatchling per 1,000 reaches adulthood. If the mortality rate were suddenly to drop so that 3 in 1,000 survive to reproduce, the beach in front of Rush Limbaugh�s house will soon be awash in surplus sea turtles.

[footnote 2] Interestingly, when Winston Churchill was vainly sounding the alarm during the1930�s, he pointedly argued that the growing danger of a German military resurgence lay not merely in increased production of tanks and airplanes, but also in the greater size of German demographic cohorts coming to draft-age in 1934-1940 in comparison to those of Britain or France. Even if the Allies could reach parity in the arms race, Germany would still have the advantage in fighting men.

One may note that this disparity in relative populations was more than rectified by 1946. There were over 3,000,000 German battle deaths (perhaps as many as 5,000,000) during the Second World War, while Britain and France suffered about 300,000 each. It is a grim observation that, while animal populations self-regulate due to predation and food supply, humanity � freed of those constraints by virtue of our position at the top of the food chain and the practice of agriculture � affects adjustments to its adult population size through warfare.

[footnote 3] Rush Limbaugh is fond of saying that, if we want to defeat our enemies, we should export Liberalism to them. We could then say that if we want to make our enemies� population to decline, we should export Feminism to them.

Cross posted from Hyscience