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May 8, 2007

Laura Mansfield On The Terrorist Roadmap for the Future

Laura Mansfield says that News media reports describing the six Islamic radicals arrested In a terrorist plot against soldiers and civilians at the Fort Dix, NJ base as homegrown with no ties to al Qaeda or any other international terrorist organization isn't at all surprising:

It is very likely that this cell, like numerous others that have been uncovered in the past year, falls into the category of ?Individual or Small Group Terrorism?, as espoused by the Al Qaeda ideologue Abu Mus'ab al Suri in his book "Call to Global Islamic Resistance"

The doctrine of ?Individual or Small Group Terrorism? is a major concept in al Suri?s 1604-page manifesto, published on the internet in December 2004.

Al Suri, who is believed to be currently in US custody, describes three primary phases of Jihad in the book:

• Organizations
  
• Open Fronts
  
• Individual/Small Groups
  

He explains in depth each of these phases, and makes a strong case that the wave of the future is individual and small group terrorists.

He believes that the days of the larger groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, are close to ending, citing the increased effectiveness of security forces in breaking up the groups, as well as the security risks posed in top-down, chain of command structures. A primary concern of Al Suri was that an arrest of anyone in the chain could compromise all those involved.

Likewise, he believes that the days of the ?Open Front? for jihad are over, citing overwhelming force of the US as a factor limiting the viability of ?open fronts?. One key element found in ?Open Fronts?, such as Afghanistan and Chechnya is the opportunity for organized group trainings ? the training camps of Afghanistan, for example.

Instead, he believes the future of jihad is for individuals and small groups, with no chains connecting them to Al Qaeda leadership. He points out the geographical and financial limitations, claiming that individual and small group jihad in one?s own country is the only realistic opportunity most have to participate in jihad. He believes that few will actually make the trip to an open front to participate.

The concept of individual and small group terror cells is one that Al Suri finds particularly intriguing, and he seems to find in this doctrine solutions for the problems and risks posed by the other two stages of jihad.

Posted by Richard at May 8, 2007 6:25 PM