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May 7, 2008

World Nightmare: Iran Could Have Nukes By Mid-2009

In what Robert Spencer refers to as a 1938 moment, Israel now fears Iran could have a nuclear bomb by mid-2009:

(Jerusalem Post) With Iran racing forward with its nuclear program, Israel now believes the Islamic Republic will master centrifuge technology and be able to begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The new assessment moves up Israel's forecasts on Teheran's nuclear program by almost a full year - from 2009 to the end of 2008. According to the new timeline, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the middle of next year.

Iran, a senior defense official said on Tuesday, had encountered numerous technical obstacles on its way to enriching uranium but was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months.

Israel is also concerned that Teheran is developing a cruise missile that can evade interception by the Arrow, the IDF's anti-ballistic missile defense system. Iran is suspected of having smuggled Ukrainian X-55 cruise missiles and using them as models for an independent, domestic project. A cruise missile, which flies at low altitudes to dodge radar detection and interception, could be used to carry a nuclear warhead.

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Israel's fears appear justifiable, given that Alireza Jafarzadeh, the man who exposed Iran's nuclear weapons program in 2002 (and has never been wrong), has warned that twenty-one commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are the top scientists running Iran's secret nuclear weapons program and the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate published back in 2007 saying Tehran shut down its weaponization program in 2003 failed to mention that the program restarted in mid-2004.

Back on April 9 of this year ABC News reported that Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium in the previous three months, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material:

The addition of 1,000 new centrifuges, which are not yet operational, means Iran is expanding its enrichment program at a pace much faster than U.S. intelligence experts had predicted.

"If they continue at this pace, and they get the centrifuges to work and actually enrich uranium on a distinct basis," said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, "then you're looking at them having, potentially having enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 2009."

Previous predictions by U.S. intelligence had cited 2015 as the earliest date Iran could develop a weapon.

The situation could even be worse than the above articles suggest. Recent simulations carried out by European Union experts have come to the alarming conclusion that Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb by the end of this 2008. Although it sounds a bit dramatic and alarmist, one could envision a nightmare unfolding before our eyes.

As Shimon Peres has warned, a combination of a fanatic leadership, a terroristic center and a nuclear bomb will come together, is a nightmare for the world. From all that the world is seeing unfold on the Iran nuclear threat, even as this post is being written, that nightmare is coming ever closer to reality unless Iran's nuclear ambitions brought to a halt. The West's options for doing so aren't attractive and pose great risks, but the result of our failure to act is certain.

Interesting Related Video: The Iranian Threat; a vido about Iranian involvement in the ME conflict in Iraq, Iran's ultimate goal in the region, and how we have to stop Iran before it acquires nuclear weapons - before it's too late:

Related Video (aired last year): "Iran: The Ticking Bomb," a FOX News documentary exploring Iran's support of global terrorism, its pursuit of nuclear weapons and its proxy war with the United States:

Related: Alireza Jafarzadeh - Evidence of Tehran's Destructive Meddling in Iraq Is Mounting

Posted by Richard at May 7, 2008 8:02 AM